Article Summary:
In 1869, Massachusetts created America’s first Bureau of Statistics of Labor to measure workplace conditions during the Industrial Revolution, establishing the principle that democratic governments should track what’s happening to their workers. Today, as artificial intelligence threatens widespread job displacement, that commitment to measurement and evidence-based policymaking is being tested.
While economists see no clear data yet showing AI’s impact on employment, corporate leaders are openly warning of massive job losses. CEOs from Ford, Anthropic, and other major companies have predicted that AI could eliminate 10-20% of jobs within years, with some estimating half of white-collar positions could disappear within a decade. Yet after briefly discussing these projections, executives have gone silent, advised by PR teams to stop talking publicly about AI and layoffs.
Economists remain divided on timing and severity. Some, like Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, argue it’s too early to draw conclusions—productivity is strong and unemployment remains low. Others, like MIT’s David Autor and Daron Acemoglu, emphasize that speed matters: gradual change allows societies to adapt, but rapid disruption causes lasting damage, as seen with the “China shock” that devastated manufacturing communities.
However, economist Anton Korinek warns this time may be different. Unlike previous technologies, AI can help deploy itself, potentially compressing decades of change into years. If 40% of global jobs are affected rapidly, as the IMF projects, political institutions already showing brittleness may not withstand the strain.
Meanwhile, Congress remains paralyzed, unable to even fund expanded labor statistics or revive worker retraining programs. The Trump administration has delegated AI oversight to venture capitalist David Sacks, who has hundreds of AI investments. Without political action, the challenge may ultimately be less about jobs than about whether
Article Excerpt:
“I am referring, of course, to artificial intelligence. After a rollout that could have been orchestrated by H. P. Lovecraft—“We are summoning the demon,” Elon Musk warned in a typical early pronouncement—the AI industry has pivoted from the language of nightmares to the stuff of comas. Driving innovation. Accelerating transformation. Reimagining workflows. It’s the first time in history that humans have invented something genuinely miraculous and then rushed to dress it in a fleece vest.”